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Power of rapid Zhoushan bunker volume increasing is disclosed via AIS data analyzing

日期:2018-11-01
In 2017, Zhoushan port bunker volume was increasing in high speed. Through 2018, volume of bunker is higher rather than 2017. Refer to HyqFocus report, volume of bunker in Zhoushan port in the first three quarters is 2.956 million tons, an increase of 101.5%. The reason is confirmed by comparing and matching Baltic Exchange fixture report and dry cargo vessel routes under AIS data model analyzing.

2,663 dry cargo vessel including 4,395 delivery reports are chosen from Baltic Exchange Fixture Reports which are reported from 01st/Aug, 2017 to 31st/Aug, 2018. Comparisons are as following:

1. Delivery position comparison

According to above comparison, East Coast South America is the most delivery position which are 314 times, as 7.14% of total 4395 times. Changjiangkou is the second delivery position which are 222 times, as 5.05% of total 4395 times. Singapore is the third delivery position which are 202 times, as 4.6% of total 4395times.

Among the top 15 delivery positions, there are CJK (5.05%), Hong Kong (2.87%), Lianyungang (1.32%), Fangcheng (1.25%), Zhoushan (1.18%) and Tianjin (1.05%) as total of 12.72% of the global delivery positions. If Hong Kong is excluded, China mainland has a total of 9.87% of the global delivery positions.

According to the explanation of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, the TOP one of global delivery positions East Coast South America is actually a very wide range. It is divided into 10 areas.
Compared to the East Coast of South America, the TOP 2 delivery position CJK is a area only about 20x20 nautical miles. As the anchorage of Shanghai and the anchorage of various ports in the Yangtze River, CJK anchorage is more reasonable as the center of chartering delivery center. Because of the wide range of reasons, the South East Coast of South America cannot be called the "center."
  

It is marked to draw the northernmost SHENGSI island of TOP 11 delivery position Zhoushan (1.18%) and the TOP 2 delivery position CJK (5.05%) to be placed in the same picture. It can be viewed that the CJK and Zhoushan are possible to merge together. If combined, the total revenue of dry cargo vessel chartering delivered is 6.23%. It is 1.35 times that of Singapore (4.60%).

2. Delivery routes

A. Routes after ECSA delivery
According to the ranking comparison of dry cargo vessel chartering delivery positions mentioned in the first above section, the following is the route after the delivery of the South American East Coast. There are two characteristics in it. The first characteristic is that the vessel chartering fixture reports do not list next loading position but only re-delivery position after delivered in the East Coast of South America. The second characteristic is 214 re-delivery position records were between Singapore and Japan in total 314 re-delivery position records.

Finally, it can be judged that routes after ECSA delivery are directly loaded in ECSA after delivery and sailed to Singapore-Japan range for discharging.


B. Routes after CJK delivery
After the CJK delivery, there were 31 records that dry cargo vessel sailed to Australia, accounting for 13.964% of all 222 records. There are also 31 records on the east coast of Australia, accounting for 13.964% of the total. There were 26 records for Indonesia, accounting for 11.711% of the total, and 11 records for the Australian port of Newcastle, accounting for 4.955% of the total. There are 8 records on the west coast of Australia, accounting for 3.604% of the total. Combining these results can be unified as the direction of Australia. And these routes are the same route from CJK to Taiwan. If the Philippines route record (3.153%), which is also on the same route from CJK to Taiwan, is also included. Totally, there are 114 records accounted for 51.351% which routes are passing Zhoushan after CJK delivery.
  

It is well known that for commercial reasons, the On Hire/Off Hire survey will not be done at CJK anchorage. CJK delivery and Passing Zhoushan delivery will not incur additional costs. Therefore, in theory, these 114 records are regarded as Passing Zhoushan's records. Plus Zhoushan's own 52 records, it turned out a total of 166 records accounting for 3.77% of the global dry cargo vessel chartering delivery record. The new ranking comparison is as following:


C. Routes after Singapore delivery
As can be seen from the figure below, after delivery from Singapore, bulk carriers mainly sailed to Indonesia, the East Coast of South America and the West Coast of Australia. Among them, there were 111 records for sailing to Indonesia, 38 records for sailing to the East Coast of South America and 8 records fro sailing to west coast of Australia. Compared with the CJK delivery, Singapore has obvious advantages in various maritime services such as bunker supply. The location of CJK anchorage (away from the shore) and size (only about 20x20 nautical miles) could not provide the maritime services required for the vessels, such as supply, replacement of crew and repairs.

  

Therefore, Zhoushan delivery has more obvious advantages than CJK delivery. Zhoushan is currently the only port to provide bonded oil bunker supply in outer anchorage in mainland China. This is theoretically feasible that Zhoushan can attract vessel in the CJK delivery, especially those vessels which pass Zhoushan after CJK delivery to call Zhoushan to make bunker supply and provide more related maritime services.

3. Conclusion
The following is the bunker price from a Zhoushan local and physical supplier on October 24. It can be seen that Zhoushan 380CST price is higher 4 US dollars than Singapore. The bunker price difference in Zhoushan has been significantly shortened with that of Singapore, which is superior to Busan in South Korea.
  

Zhoushan’s own dry cargo vessel delivery record is 52 times, accounting for 1.18% of the global delivery, which is 25% of the total number of delivery records in Singapore. According to the above results, 114 of the 222 records of the CJK delivery will pass through Zhoushan. Explain that the dry cargo vessel of the CJK delivery can choose Zhoushan as a bunkering port and accomplish other maritime services at the same time. Shifting 114 records in CJK delivery to a combined range CJK-Zhoushan, total 166 records are accounting for 3.77% of the global dry cargo vessel chartering record. This is equivalent to 82% of Singapore's delivery.

According to the report of HyqFocus on January 14, the latest data from the Singapore Maritime and Port Authority shows that Singapore Port sold a total of 50.6 million tons of marine fuel in 2017. Zhoushan's bunker supply in September 2018 was 2.956 million tons, an increase of 101.5% year-on-year. According to the proportion, Zhoushan's refueling capacity this year can reach 3.32 million tons which year-on-year growth is very impressive. Even so, it will still be only 6.6% of Singapore which is far from reaching the potential demand for dry cargo vessel chartering market. Therefore, if Zhoushan can provide more bunker anchorage, improve the utilization rate of anchorage and simplify the process, especially to improve the utilization of single standard bunkering time and to dispatch vessel quickly. It is believed that Zhoushan may become a bonded fuel bunker and maritime center in Northeast Asia in 10 years.

Source: MarineCircle News